Flood statistics are only useful when the source, geography, date and type of flooding are clear.
England-only figures should not be described as UK totals. Long-term modelled risk, current warnings, historic events and public-opinion surveys measure different things.
Four different types of flood statistic
Modelled likelihood for an area over time, separated by sources such as rivers, sea and surface water.
Warnings, alerts, forecasts and monitored water levels describing a developing situation.
Historic incidents that provide context but do not predict one property's future.
Survey findings about what people know or do, rather than a physical risk assessment.
How to quote flood figures responsibly
- Name the original source.
- State whether the figure covers England, Great Britain or the whole UK.
- Include the publication or update date.
- Explain which source of flooding is included.
- Avoid combining unlike datasets into a misleading total.
- Link readers to the current primary source.
Current and future risk
National assessments can include climate-change scenarios and improved modelling, but the outputs remain area-level information. A specific property decision may also require local authority information, searches, a survey and an insurance quotation.
Official starting points
For England, use the official long-term flood-risk service for mapped risk and the current flood-warning service for live conditions. Separate official services apply in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Why definitions matter
A report may count properties, people, locations, warnings or historic events. Those totals cannot be compared without checking definitions. A current warning count changes with conditions, while a long-term assessment describes modelled probability. FloodCheckr therefore avoids presenting one as evidence for the other.
Questions to ask when reading a statistic
- What area does the figure cover?
- Which flood source is included?
- Does the number describe properties, people or events?
- What year and model version were used?
- Does the source include climate-change scenarios?
- Has the figure been superseded?